Crypto Tumble Wipes $600 Billion Off Digital Tokens in a Week

Virtual currencies are retreating so broadly and sharply, it’s testing the durability of the cryptocurrency boom.

The $40,000 mark is a “critical make-or-break pivot level” for Bitcoin and a decline to just below $30,000 isn’t out of the question, Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda, wrote in a note.

Early in April, the value of cryptocurrencies breached $2 trillion for the first time, doubling in about two months on optimism institutional investors were increasingly interested. The current weakness has erased over $600 billion.

Bitcoin tested its 200-day moving average, and its discount to the 120-day average is the biggest since last year, according to Mike McGlone, a commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence in New York. He sees the Bitcoin price settling around the 2021 average of approximately $49,000.

In Bitcoin futures, technicians see a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, which could point to more weakness ahead.

The ratio of Bitcoin’s price relative to gold has dropped to the lowest since early February. That’s come amid greater caution about speculative assets as well as the post-pandemic economic recovery. Bitcoin’s proponents argue it’s a modern-day store of value, a claim belied by the token’s volatility.

After Bitcoin pulled back from a mid-April high, an ongoing rally in Ether -- the second-largest cryptocurrency -- drew attention. But that has also stalled. Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. in Melbourne, wrote in a note Monday that he was closing a short Bitcoin/long Ether trade as the “dust really needs to settle.”

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, the largest Bitcoin fund, is sitting on close to a record discount to net asset value. That gap could disappear if it converts as planned to an exchange-traded fund. However, risks for a wider discount include uncertainty over whether U.S. officials will ever allow Bitcoin ETFs.






Source: Bloomberg
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