After Merkel, Will France Replace Germany As Europe's ‘Superpower’?

Macron is likely to attempt to become Europe’s central figurehead once Merkel leaves, analysts say and has been positioning himself to achieve that for a while. “As regards Macron, we already see tentative attempts to take leadership in Europe,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING.

He pointed to “Macron’s interventions when it comes to European debates on fiscal rules.” France has called for the EU to relax rules regarding member states’ budget deficits and debt-to-GDP levels, particularly in light of the coronavirus pandemic, while Germany has traditionally opposed any loosening of the rules that are meant to restrain deficits and debt.

“Germany is currently too much occupied with itself to really care but strong French leadership without a German counterweight has hardly ever been appreciated in Berlin,” Brzeski noted. One thing that might mollify Germany, Brzeski noted, was that it knows that Macron has his own presidential battles to come, with a French presidential election due next April. “This will leave less time for strong European leadership initiatives, even though France will have the EU presidency next year,” Brzeski said.

″[I] guess that the real test case will come after the French elections, in case Macron gets re-elected. We could then see a more powerful attempt to grab European leadership. This gives any next German chancellor around a year to grow into Merkel’s shoes,” he said.