Election latest: Worst-ever Tory defeat and victory for Farage in Clacton

The Conservative Party is on track for its worst electoral defeat in history, according to a new Ipsos poll of nearly 20,000 people. 

The poll estimates Labour could secure 453 seats, while the Conservatives might only take 115, giving Sir Keir Starmer's party a commanding 256-seat majority. 

The lower range estimate for the Conservatives is even more dire, with potentially just 99 seats.

This outcome would result in significant losses for senior Tory figures, including Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan, Johnny Mercer, and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg. 

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt faces a tight race in his Surrey constituency of Godalming and Ash, and cabinet ministers James Cleverly and Kemi Badenoch are also projected to struggle to retain their seats.

Notably, the poll suggests that Nigel Farage could win Clacton from the Conservatives, marking his first time as an MP.

 Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, running as an independent, is predicted to lose his long-held Islington North seat to Labour.

The projection also indicates the Liberal Democrats could win 38 seats, the Scottish National Party 15, the Greens three, and Reform UK could gain three seats as well. A similar Survation poll on Monday predicted a similarly large Labour majority.

Understanding MRP Polls

MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) polls use large data samples and additional information like demographic data and location-specific factors to predict voting outcomes. 

These polls start by asking a large, representative sample of people how they intend to vote. They then combine this information with data about the characteristics of different constituencies to estimate voting behaviour across the country. 

This method considers that each constituency has unique dynamics and local issues that can influence voting patterns, providing a more nuanced and accurate prediction compared to general assumptions about voter behaviour.
Source: https://news.sky.com/ 
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