Stock Market Faces Worst First 100 Days Under a U.S. President in over 50 Years

By Evans Momodu, updated 16:25

The U.S. stock market is on track for its worst start to a presidential term since 1974, with the S&P 500 down 7.8% under Trump’s second term amid tariff turmoil and economic uncertainty.

The U.S. stock market is heading toward its worst first 100 days under a president in more than five decades, rattled by global uncertainty and aggressive tariff policies introduced during President Donald Trump’s second term.

Since Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025, the S&P 500 has plunged 7.8%, wiping out nearly $3.93 trillion in market value. If the current trend holds through Tuesday's closing bell, it will mark the worst 100-day market performance since President Gerald Ford took office in 1974 — and the third-worst in U.S. presidential history.

Initially, markets surged post-election in November, fuelled by expectations that a second Trump term would bring pro-growth, pro-business policies. However, that optimism has eroded rapidly due to mounting trade tensions, especially from sweeping 145% tariffs on Chinese imports and a minimum 10% tariff on all other foreign goods.

On Tuesday morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a modest gain of 40 points (0.1%), while the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.4%, extending losses into the final stretch of the president’s first 100 days.

“Given the ongoing uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and the broader economic outlook, we suspect the going will get tougher from here,” said Jonas Goltermann, Deputy Chief Markets Economist at Capital Economics.

If the S&P 500 does not rally more than 1% by the market close, Trump’s second term will mark the third-worst stock market start in history, behind only the troubled early terms of Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford.

Should the index bounce back more than 1% before the session ends, the record would improve slightly — placing it as the fourth-worst, just ahead of George H.W. Bush’s first term when the S&P declined 6.9% in the opening stretch.

Experts point to policy uncertainty and trade disruptions as key factors overshadowing strong corporate fundamentals.

“Policy is overshadowing key fundamentals,” said Terry Sandven, Chief Equity Strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management Group. “We could still have some weakness ahead of us, but at a minimum, we’re looking at sustained volatility until there’s more clarity on tariffs.”

Investors are closely watching the administration’s next moves on international trade and supply chain policy, both of which continue to drive volatility across sectors, particularly in tech, manufacturing, and consumer goods.

With over $3 trillion in value lost and no immediate resolution to trade tensions in sight, Wall Street is bracing for more turbulence in the months ahead — and history may judge the early economic performance of Trump’s second term harshly.
Source: CNN